Page 182 - CW E-Magazine (17-12-2024)

Special Report

industrial use such as green steel,
4.00 3.74 blending in city gas distribution
3.50 along with natural gas.
3.00 -0.56 -0.14 -0.16 * Long term – Application in trans-
2.50 -0.28 2.10 portation, shipping, auxiliary power
2.00 FY2023 -0.50 generation, etc.
USD/Kg 1.50 CareEdge Ratings has assessed

1.00 FY2030 demand potential from two aspects: exist-
0.50 ing market share in hydrogen demand
Reduction Reduction Reduction Reduction Benefi t of direct which is on the horizontal axis and the
Current due to fall in due to due to fall due to change production Target cost of hydrogen in overall production
LOCH electrolyzer improvement in in RE price in opex incentive LOCH cost plotted on the vertical axis.
electrolyzer
price
effi ciency
Currently, refi neries have a high
Source: CareEdge Ratings Figure 2: From current LCOH to target LCOH market share of 43% in the overall

annual hydrogen demand of 6-mt in India
Current H2 Industry Share and the cost of hydrogen in the over-
High Low all production cost of refi neries is low,
making it one of the immediate poten-
H2 cost in overall Cost High Low Ammonia Heavy Duty Vehicles GH2 over FY27-FY30 in refi neries.
tial users for GH2. It can lead to a
Methanol
potential demand of 2.70-3.00 mt of
This can further rise.

The fertiliser sector has the highest
Refinery
Steel

market share in hydrogen demand

(for desulphurization)
CGD
accounting for ~50% of the total
.
hydrogen demand in India.

Figure 3: Readiness to absorb GH2 demand However, the fertilisers are sensi-
Source: CareEdge Ratings
tive to the cost of hydrogen as in over-
all production cost its contribution is
12.00 high. Hence cost parity of GH2 with
existing alternatives, besides incentivi-
Hydrogen demnd in India MMT 8.00 site for strengthening the adoption of
10.00
sing the demand, would be a prerequi-
GH2 in ammonia production and other
non-urea-based fertilizers. Adoption of
6.00
green ammonia can lead to potential
demand of 3.75-4.25 mt of GH2 over
4.00
FY27-FY30 with about one-third of
2.00
which may be an ideal segment for
early adoption.
- demand coming from non-urea segment,
FY23 FY27 (P) FY30 (P) Adoption of GH2 for methanol is
Refineries Ammonia others less economically viable due to the
lower cost of imported methanol. Yet,
Figure 4: Hydrogen demand in India (FY27-FY30) the adoption of GH2 in heavy-duty
Source: CareEdge Ratings vehicles can be explored in the long

182 Chemical Weekly December 17, 2024

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