Page 173 - CW E-Magazine (12-11-2024)

Special Report

Medium-term fertiliser outlook 2024 – 2028

International Fertilizer Association Supply forecast Phosphoric acid production is esti-
(IFA) Fertiliser supply increased across the mated to have increased by 1% to 85-mt
board in 2023, to varying degrees. Ni- in 2023 while total MAP+DAP produc-
Backdrop trogen production volumes broke away tion is estimated to have increased by
he fertiliser markets stabilised in from recent trends to reach record levels in 3% year-on-year to 64.3-mt. Despite the
2023 and H1 2024, despite conti- 2023, while phosphate and potash output partial recovery, global MAP+DAP out-
Tnued global disruption across partially recovered from the challenging put did not return to 2020 levels follow-
commodity markets. Fertilisers remain events of 2022. Global ammonia output ing three years of decline. Lower output
exposed to global risks spanning geo- is estimated to have reached 185.6-mt in levels in Africa (Morocco) were offset
politics, confl ict, economics and climate. 2023, up by 2% compared to 2022. Urea by higher production in China and West
Macroeconomic drivers remain highly production is estimated to have increased Asia (Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq). The
infl uential as infl ation and high interest signifi cantly to reach 195.5-mt in 2023, growth in MAP+DAP production in China
rates have reduced borrowing power for up by 6% compared to 2022. in 2023 was underpinned by capacity
producers and consumers alike. How- changes, with new plants commissioning
ever, fertiliser affordability was much Higher production levels were ob- while older and idle plants permanently
improved in H1 2024 compared to the served in countries that have recently closed – resulting in operational plants
previous 18 months. This trend supported witnessed a cycle of investments in new working harder to meet recovering
a recovery in fertiliser consumption in FY capacity, notably in China, India, Africa demand in 2023.
2023 after two years of decline, which (Egypt and Nigeria), the US and Russia.
was particularly felt for phosphate and Despite improved affordability of natural Global potassium (MOP) produc-
potash fertilisers. gas feedstock, European production re- tion is estimated to have risen by 13% to
mained constrained and ammonia output 69.3-mt in 2023. The EECA region was
High profi le disruptions in global trade fell by 2% in 2023 compared to 2022. the largest driver behind this recovery
and shipping continued in early 2024, In Central Europe, urea production fell by due to higher output from Belarus and
from changing export routes out of Russia 26% in 2023 compared to 2022. Despite Russia. Furthermore, MOP production
and Belarus to events in the Red Sea the reactivation of ammonia output in in Laos grew by 67% in 2023 vs 2022,
and low water levels in the Panama Canal, Venezuela, production fell by 11% in Latin enough to offset China’s domestic pro-
all of which made it harder to ship fertili- America due to gas supply issues and stop- duction decline.
sers around the world. These issues have pages elsewhere. Natural gas supply issues
been mostly overcome, although risk and also occurred in Trinidad, Egypt, Turkey, MOP exports from Belarus recovered
insurance costs remain major factors for Mexico, Brunei, Bangladesh and Pakistan. by 82% in 2023 to 8.2-mt, having plum-
traders to consider. Decarbonisation trends meted in 2022 on the back of western
continue with investment activity in low- Russian nitrogen production rebounded sanctions. A further 1.3-mt could be
carbon ammonia. However, delays have strongly in 2023 as export routes were potentially stored at Russian ports if
occurred in projects working towards reopened and sanctions clarifi ed. However, overland routes are taken into account,
fi nancing, or relying on government ammonia trade remains disrupted due however exact destination markets could
support to be detailed or implemented. to the continued closure of the pipeline not be traced in IFA’s analysis.
connecting Russian producers to the Black
A year of potential political change is Sea. Investment is underway to construct al- New routes to export markets were
playing out in 2024, with almost 2-billion ternative terminals at the Baltic and Taman found in 2023, replacing lost volumes
people in more than 70 countries due to Seas, but ammonia exports from Russia through the previous route via Lithuania
vote in national elections (based on recent remain dramatically lower than normal that the bulk of Belarusian MOP exports
voter turnout). Many topics will be on the levels, totalling 0.5-mt in 2023, down al- previously took. Belarus has increased ex-
table in these elections, several of which most 70% from 1.8-mt in 2022 and 4.6-mt ports to China by rail and to seaborne mar-
will have implications for fertilisers in 2021. This was not fully offset by higher kets via Russian ports. Major port invest-
such as positions on foreign policy, food exports from West Asia and North America, ment is taking place at the Russian port
security, agricultural subsidies and decar- and global ammonia trade is estimated to of Murmansk, which has been cited as a
bonisation. have fallen by 8% in 2023. potential future route for Belarusian exports.

Chemical Weekly November 5, 2024 173

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