Page 174 - CW E-Magazine (12-11-2024)

Special Report Special Report

Phosphoric acid capacity is fore- additions in EECA (Russia and Uz- projects outside of existing suppliers
rea production t A A production t otash production t cast to increase by 10% between 2023 bekistan), the US, Africa (Egypt and drives a stable phosphate balance in
and 2028, reaching 70.6-mt P O glob- Nigeria), West Asia (Iran, Qatar, Saudi the coming years. IFA’s demand fore-
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ally by the end of the next fi ve years. Arabia), India, China and Australia. cast does not include widespread roll
The most signifi cant capacity growth With total ammonia capability fore- out of phosphate use in lithium iron
is projected in 2026 and 2027, result- cast to grow at a slightly faster pace phosphate (LFP) batteries in the next
ing from sizeable investments already than demand over the next fi ve years, fi ve years outside of China.
underway. Capacity additions are the nitrogen balance is expected to
mainly expected to come from existing loosen from a theoretically available Potash capability is forecast to in-
producers in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, surplus of 3.6-mt N in 2024 to 5.9-mt crease from 52.1-mt K O in 2023 to
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while smaller additional capacities N in 2027, before receding slightly in 58.9-mt K O in 2028, a 13% growth
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Fig. 1: N supply broke away in 2023 while P and K partially recovered are also expected in India, Brazil and 2028 to 5.1-mt N. IFA’s nitrogen de- rate. This is primally driven by capa-
Source: IFA Egypt. mand forecasts include conventional city expansions by existing producers
Capacity forecasts show regional sources such as Russia, and in countries Asia (+14%), Africa (+11%) and EECA industrial nitrogen uses but do not yet in Laos and Russia, and new sizeable
investment hubs across N, P and K with strong support for decarbonisation (+11%). The US is also expected to Potash capacity is projected to include new low-carbon ammonia de- projects expected in Canada and Russia.
IFA’s forecasts of capability (the activities, such as the US where the signifi cantly grow its ammonia capacity grow by 19% to 76-mt K O in 2028 mand likely to emerge from uses in- Higher output levels are forecast to
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measure of theoretical supply based on Infl ation Reduction Act has spurred a (+11%) in the next fi ve years on the compared to 2023. Both Laos and cluding power generation, hydrogen be maintained in Belarus, in line with
typical maximum operating rates) begin wave of investments in ammonia capa- back of tax credits introduced as part of Russia are forecast to be the major carriers and maritime fuels. its recovered export capability. With
with announced capacity increases. The city with carbon capture, utilisation and the IRA in 2022. contributors to this growth until 2026. theoretically available supply growing
fertiliser capacity investment cycle has storage (CCUS). A second wave of new capacity is ex- Phosphoric acid capability is fore- at a faster pace than demand, the potash
changed in two main ways: Electrolysis-based (green) ammo- pected from 2027, with new mine in- cast to increase from 54.3-mt P O in balance is expected to loosen in 2028
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1. Lower fertiliser prices have weak- China continues to operate a major nia capacity continues to be pursued vestments expected to begin produc- 2023 to 60.3-mt P O in 2028, an 11% showing a surplus of 9.1-mt K O, up
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ened the investment case to fund portion of its nitrogen industry using by many investors, but successful tion in Canada, Russia and Belarus. growth rate. Both Africa and West Asia from 8.6-mt K O in 2023.
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new capacity; and coal as feedstock. Effi ciency improve- commissioning of projects is expected remain the main drivers of this growth.
2. The industry is becoming more ments and technology upgrades have to remain marginal in the next fi ve Capability will be driven by new After being relatively tighter in 2021, Fertiliser consumption forecast
sustainable, underpinned by the en- been the focus in China rather than years. IFA forecasts 2.8-mt N of green capacity start-ups and recovering the phosphate balance has loosened IFA’s methodology to prepare glo-

ergy transition, which raises project switching feedstock from coal to natural ammonia capacity to commission by output in sanctioned countries since then and is forecast to be better bal fertiliser demand outlooks is based

costs. gas or renewable sources. 2028, equivalent to 1% of global am- Ammonia capability is forecast to balanced in the next fi ve years. The on a survey of ~50 country experts,
monia capacity. Much larger volumes increase from 162.7-mt N in 2023 and phosphate theoretically available sur- representing around 90% of global
Nitrogen capacity investment re- Global ammonia capacity is fore- of green ammonia capacity are expec- 165.9-mt N in 2024 to 177.8-mt N in plus is projected to remain at 14% of fertiliser consumption. The results of
mains driven by access to feedstocks cast to grow by 8% from 192-mt N ted to commission beyond the next fi ve 2028 (+9% over the period), averag- supply capability in 2028 vs the same this survey are complemented with
and their competitive position. Most to 207-mt N between 2023 and 2028. years, with close to 120-mt N being ing 1.5% growth per year. Capability % in 2023. Slowing phosphate demand agricultural and trade data, as well as
expected nitrogen capacity investments Central Europe aside, capacity addi- tracked by IFA as under consideration growth will be driven by new capacity growth and a lack of any sizeable latest market information.
in the next fi ve years are in low-cost tions are expected in all regions, nota- and working towards fi nal investment
regions with abundant natural gas re- bly in China (+4%), India (+4%) West decisions. Indices of rice atios based on international an April s. an April
ess affordable trade prices ( an

capacity additions t capacity additions t capacity additions t

ore affordable
rea aize rea heat rea ice
A aize A oybeans oybeans
alm il
Fig. 2: N, P and K capacity additions are forecast to total more than 35-mt nutrient in the next fi ve years Fig. 3: Potash fertilisers are more affordable than last year particularly for oil crops
Source: IFA Source: World Bank, IFA

174 Chemical Weekly November 5, 2024 Chemical Weekly November 5, 2024 175

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