Page 161 - CW E-Magazine (7-1-2025)

News from Abroad

ENERGY FORECAST
China’s oil consumption to peak by 2027: Sinopec

China’s oil consumption is set to peak more oil than the transport sector, account- trucking sector, the addition of new gas
by 2027, state refining giant Sinopec said, ing for 55% of oil consumption in 2060, power generating capacity, and stronger
as diesel and gasoline demand weaken in up from 22% in 2024, Sinopec said. demand from the industrial and residen-
the world’s biggest oil importer, a slow- tial sectors.
down that has rattled global oil markets Diesel demand is expected to fall
this year. 5.5% to 174-mt in 2025, as LNG-fuelled Global energy trends
trucks accounted for 22% of truck sales in Sinopec predicts global primary energy
The 2027 peak will top out at no more the first three quarters of 2024. Gasoline consumption will peak at 26.71-billion
than 800-mt, Sinopec said. Last year, it demand is set to fall 2.4% to 173-mt in tonnes of coal equivalent by 2045, with
forecast peak China oil demand, also at 2025, with EVs displacing about 26-mt or renewables comprising 51.8% of energy
800mt, around the middle of 2026-2030. 15% of gasoline demand. Of the three key use by 2060.
refined products, only aviation fuel
Driven by the shift towards electric consumption is expected to grow next Energy consumption is expected to be
vehicles and the rise of trucks fuelled by year, by 7% to 45.5-mt. slow, reaching 25.25-bt (billion tonnes) by
LNG, the speed of China’s move toward 2060, with oil and gas contributing 35.7%.
peak oil has taken the industry by surprise, Sinopec also said China’s natural gas Oil demand is projected to peak at 4.66-bt
with crude imports on track to peak as consumption may peak earlier but at a by 2030, shifting focus from transporta-
soon as 2025, analysts have said. higher level than it forecast last year. By tion to industrial uses, but is expected to
2030, China’s natural gas consumption is still account for 40% of transport energy
The 800-mt peak compares with the expected to reach 570-bcm (billion cubic by 2060.
750-mt to be consumed in 2024, when de- metres) and plateau at around 620-bcm
mand is on track to drop about 10-mt from between 2035 and 2040. In last year’s “Non-fossil energy sources, including
2023 for just the second decline in two forecast, Sinopec put the plateau at hydrogen, CCUS, and advanced storage,
decades, Sinopec said. With broader use of 610-bcm by around 2040. Natural gas will expand significantly, with hydrogen’s
LNG and electric vehicles (EVs) reducing consumption is forecast at 458-bcm in share rising to nearly 50% by 2060 and
demand for gasoline and diesel, the petro- 2025, up 6.6%, Sinopec added, attributing CCUS capacity reaching 4.7-bt by 2060,”
chemicals sector will ultimately consume the growth to increased LNG use in the Sinopec said.
GROWTH PLANS
Sinopec completes second phase of expansion

at its Zhenhai refinery

China Petroleum & Chemical Cor-
poration (Sinopec) has announced the
mechanical completion of the ‘second-
phase expansion and advanced materials
project’ at its Zhenhai refinery.

Sinopec said the refinery’s capacity
has now been upgraded to 40-mtpa,
contributing to the Zhejiang Ningbo
Petrochemical Industrial Base sur-
passing a total refining capacity of
50-mtpa, cementing its position as
China’s largest petrochemical industrial
base.

Chemical Weekly January 7, 2025 161

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