Page 181 - CW E-Magazine (11-3-2025)

Special Report

India Gas Market Report: Outlook to 2030

he history of gas in India’s
energy system has a mixed track 110
Trecord, with periods of rapid 100
expansion followed by episodes of
decline. After steep demand declines 90
in the wake of the 2022 global energy 80
crisis, total gas consumption in India 70
in 2023 was only slightly higher
than in 2011. However, this report – 60
grounded in comprehensive data 50
analysis and extensive consultations 40
with Indian stakeholders – argues that 2023 Power CGD Others 2030
gas use in India has reached an infl ec- Oil refining Petrochemicals Fertilisers LNG vehicles
tion point and is on course to increase
substantially between 2023 and 2030.
This growth is driven by three major
trends: the rapid expansion of India’s Fig. 2: Natural gas demand outlook in India, 2023-2030 (bcm)
gas infrastructure; a rebound in gas distribution, industrial demand, supported by the rapid expansion of
domestic natural gas production and power generation. Since 2000, compressed natural gas (CNG) infra-
(which is generally cheaper than India’s natural gas consumption more structure and the cost advantage of
imported LNG); and an expected easing than doubled, exceeding 65-bcm/yr gas over liquid fuels for small in-
of global gas market conditions. (billion cubic metres per year) by dustrial users. Heavy industrial and
Supportive government policies have 2023. Between 2023 and 2030, gas manufacturing sectors, such as iron &
further paved the way for increased consumption is projected to grow by steel production, are also driving
natural gas consumption through 2030. nearly 60%, reaching 103-bcm/yr by demand, collectively adding around
the end of the forecast period, bringing 15-bcm/yr during this period. Gas use in
Natural gas consumption is forecast India roughly on par with the current oil refi ning is expected to increase by
to increase by nearly 60% by 2030 gas consumption of Saudi Arabia. more than 4-bcm/yr as more refi ne-
India’s natural gas consumption is ries get connected to the grid. Growth
forecast to increase by nearly 60% by The city gas distribution (CGD) prospects in the petrochemical and
2030, driven by robust growth in city sector is expected to lead this growth, fertiliser sectors remain more limited,
as no new gas-based capacity addi-
tions are foreseen within our forecast
80
horizon. Gas demand in the power
70 generation sector is projected to reach
60 nearly 15-bcm/yr by 2030, driven by
a recovery in large gas-fi red power
50 plants and the rapid expansion of gas
40 use in captive power plants.
30
Fertiliser production is India’s
20 largest gas-consuming sector
Fertiliser production is India’s
10
largest gas-consuming sector, accoun-
0 ting for nearly a third (21-bcm) of the
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Power CGD Oil refining Petrochemicals Fertilisers Other country’s total gas demand in 2023.
Natural gas is used as a feedstock
Fig. 1: Total natural gas demand in India, 2016-2024, by sector (bcm) for ammonia-based urea production,

Chemical Weekly March 11, 2025 181

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