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World Chlor-Alkali Conference 2024 World Chlor-Alkali Conference 2024

average basis, bring down the ECU,” big capacities are successfully absorbed, tiveness of the local industry. Consolida- OUTLOOK
he said. I do not think the two players will stop tion will happen not only in the domestic
at this. As per market assumptions, by market, but also in adjacent geographies, Growth prospects for chlor-alkali in pulp and paper
Not all players in India will be im- 2030, even with these two projects, India with Indian players also putting up caustic
pacted in the same manner – players will still be short on PVC by 2.5-mt,” said capacities in neighbouring countries to industry
who are not integrated to PVC start- Mr. Singh. derisk their India operations. Consolida-
ing from feedstock will have to rely on tion will also happen in terms of large Mr. Matt Elhardt, Chief Revenue hygiene will boost the tissues segment,” on chlor-alkali is in caustic soda and
traditional downstream sectors. But “Expansions will keep coming and players with bigger pockets and better Offi cer, ResourceWise, provided an he added. sodium chlorate,” he said, and noted that
with two biggest source of chlorine con- India will continue to be a net importer. cost structures, entering into the caustic update on the trends in the pulp & paper elemental chlorine consumption would
sumption – agrochemicals and dyes – But the gap of importing quantity will space,” he said. industry, recognised as the second Speaking about the tissue industry, remain stable after previous years of
not doing too well, Mr. Singh forecast- reduce signifi cantly. And by 2032, I expect largest end market for caustic soda. he said in most cases paper tissue is decline due to dioxin regulations.
ed plateauing of growth after these two India to be PVC-balanced,” he added. “I am optimistic about India. The made where it is consumed, due to the
expansions. country will continue to be a predomi- The pulp & paper industry is low-density nature of the product. The Demand from the global pulp &
Mr. Singh concluded by predicting nantly domestic market; however, divided into key application areas like making of pulp fi bre – which consumes paper for caustic soda is expected to
“I do not see any huge capacities an imminent consolidation in the Indian exports will be a new normal and soon printing & writing, towel & tissues and most of the caustic soda and chlorine – increase by around 7% over the next
coming up, at least till 2028. However, on chlor-alkali sector. “An industry, which India will become a global price parity packaging. is usually carried out in low-cost three years as operating rates improve
a long term, till 2032-33, this growth will has 8-mtpa capacity, cannot operate with market rather than being a domestic regions like in Southeast Asia and Latin from low levels in 2023.
continue. On the PVC side, if these two around 40 players. It will kill the competi- ecosystem,” Mr. Singh concluded. Mr. Elhardt pointed out that the past America, while fi nished products are
15 years has seen the decline in use of made locally. According to Mr. Elhardt, the caustic
SPOTLIGHT ON DEMAND DRIVERS paper for communication (in printing & and chlorine costs for the pulp & paper
writing), due to the growing use of Mr. Elhardt pointed out that the industry are relatively insignifi cant, at
Role for caustic soda in enabling sustainable mobility internet, while paper for packaging has tissue consumption would grow with less than 5%, as compared to the cost
seen strong growth driven by the popu- population and wealth. “Tissue growth of fi bre, energy, labour and other mate-
and energy transition larity of e-commerce. In terms of pro- is a reliable long term growth trend, and rials. “Demand from the pulp & paper
duction of pulp & paper, China’s share it will drive caustic soda and bleaching industry will remain very much inelastic
The role for caustic soda in enabling accounting for about 86% of total lithium fi cation to make it pure enough for has grown from 21% of global pro- demand,” he added. because chlor-alkali is just a small
sustainable transportation – especially demand, as compared to about 40% in spherical graphite production. Nearly all duction in 2008 to over 40% in 2023, component of the overall cost. A price
electric mobility – was discussed by 2015. Over 92% of lithium compounds processing of natural fl ake graphite into displacing US from pole position. He informed that ‘market pulp’ change in chlor-alkali sector will not
Ms. Alison Saxby, Research Director at in batteries go into cathode application. spherical graphite, for use in the anode This followed on the coattails of the accounts for over 50% of the pulp & have much impact on demand from the
Project Blue, a UK-based provider of of lithium-ion batterie, is carried out in manufacturing boom in China, which paper industry’s caustic soda consump- pulp & paper industry,” he said.
market intelligence on critical materials. Production of lithium has doubled China. predominantly fed consumption in tion, even as carton board and container
since 2020, she said, but as a result of Western countries. board have gained substantially in the Speaking about sustainability trends
Caustic soda is deployed in the pro- a lower demand growth in the last six In processing of rare earths, Ms. Saxby past fi ve years. that could drive future demand for pulp &
duction of lithium hydroxide for use in months and the macro-economic situa- noted that caustic soda can be used in By 2035, Mr. Elhardt forecasted paper, and in turn, chlorine and caustic,
lithium-ion batteries, spherical graphite tion in China, lithium prices have fallen various ways including in the process- packaging and tissues & towels to “Chlor-alkali chemicals are used he noted that consumer sentiment against
production from natural fl ake graphite for dramatically since mid-2023. ing of rare earth sulphates from bastnae- account for 90% of global pulp and mostly in pulping and bleaching and plastic and regulations against use of
use in lithium-ion battery anodes, inter- site deposits, release of rare earths from paper demand. “Packaging would be about 90% of all the spends in the single-use plastics could drive increased
mediate processing of cobalt and nickel, As for nickel, she said its major ap- monazite through alkaline cracking and driven by consumption of goods, while pulp & paper industry worldwide demand for certain paper grades.
rare earth processing and production of plication is in stainless steel production. processing of apatite ore to produce rare
alumina to make aluminium, the light- Nickel was the worst performing LME earth oxides. Chemical Weekly | Import-Export Data | Market Surveys
weighting metal for EVs, along with a base metal in 2023. There has been a Directories | Business Forums | Expositions
minor use as battery foils. massive increase in production of nickel- “Caustic soda plays a key role in the
based intermediate products for the processing of critical elements required
She estimated the lithium industry to battery sector, which has led to prices for the energy transition, especially The only organisation in India catering exclusively to the needs of the entire chemical industry
be worth about $28-bn in 2023, up from tumbling from 2023. With rapid ramp up aluminium and lithium hydroxide. This Contact:
about $6-bn in 2022. “This is despite a of production in the last few years, Indo- demand is set to grow over the next decade.
decrease in average lithium compound nesia now accounts for over 40% of the For materials such as nickel, cobalt, rare SEVAK PUBLICATIONS PVT. LTD.
prices,” she said. global nickel production. earth elements, and graphite, the choice 602-B, Godrej Coliseum, K.J. Somaiya Hospital Road,
of process to suit the separation method Behind Everard Nagar, Sion (E), Mumbai 400 022.
The battery industry has become Speaking about graphite, she said and desired output will infl uence whether Phone: +91-22-24044471 / 72;
the dominant use sector for lithium, there are three methods of graphite puri- caustic soda is used,” noted Ms. Saxby. Email: admin@chemicalweekly.com

182 Chemical Weekly July 23, 2024 Chemical Weekly July 23, 2024 183

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