Page 188 - CW E-Magazine (21-1-2025)

Special report Special report

2025: The Drake Shake or Drake Lake? Enneagram Type 8, Myers-Brigg ESTP
type, narcissist, etc.). At the end of
the day, Trump copes with his com-
he Drake Passage is the treache- ployment and world trade. The aver- plex, impulsive behaviour by simpli-
rous stretch of sea between the tip ages seem to give a picture of pre- RAJ NAIR fying certain things for himself. His
Tof South America and Antarctica, dictable calm waters. Which one is Chairman, Avalon Consulting polemic is constructed around beliefs
which fl ips unpredictably between a likely? Email: raj.nair@consultavalon.com about three main entities: Iran, China
shake with tempestuous 13-metre-high and his own political backers. Most
waves and a seemingly placid lake. Table 1 other things are negotiable. Canada and
I traversed the Drake Passage in 2024 OECD Global Economic Outlook – December 2024 Mexico will negotiate their way out of
and can visualise a similarity between Average punitive tariffs – after all, USA, Canada
what is in store as Trump takes over as 2013-2019 2023 2024 2025 2026 and Mexico need each other. Other
the POTUS, and OECD’s expectation Percent countries may pay increased tariffs on
of a smooth movement from 2024 into Real GDP growth(1) certain goods since most countries need
2025 and beyond. World(2) 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 the US market. Immigration laws will
G20(2) 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.3 3.2 certainly be tightened as immigrants
It would appear that there are so OECD(2) 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9 have no power. Gaps for immigration
many unpredictable moving parts in United States 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.1 may be intentionally left in hi-tech
the World as we approach 2025, with Euro Area 1.9 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.5 areas where US needs people, to be on
Trump at the helm in a sea of serious action already brewing somewhere to  Oil prices could go up further top. Who then wields power and infl u-
confl icts in Ukraine, the Middle East Japan 0.8 1.7 -0.3 1.5 0.6 counteract or negate many of them, if because of likely Israel-Iran confl ict. ence over Trump? The billionaires, the
and Levant, Iran’s Mullahs seeking Non-OECD(2) 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 not most. There is also the possibility  European economy will struggle. US weapons industry, the oil sector,
retribution, disrupted supply chains, China 6.8 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.4 of other triggers getting drowned in  Infl ation seems to be under con- Health and Wall Street bigwigs, etc.,
energy transition, political instabi- India(3) 6.8 8.2 6.8 6.9 6.8 the noise. Hidden triggers are often trol; interest rates will drop further who funded Trump’s campaign. Hence
lity, debt crisis in many low-income Brazil -0.4 2.9 3.2 2.3 1.9 meaningful. across the world in 2025. global wars will not suddenly end.
countries and the surprises springing OECD unemployment rate(4) 6.5 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8  Global investment fl ows will rush Europe is likely to increase funding
from AI. Hence, the global economy Infl ation(1) In this note, I will comment on only even more rapidly into USA, thus for NATO, but they may buy more war
in 2025 would seem to be very unpre- G20(2-5) 3.0 6.1 5.4 3.5 2.9 two sets of things, despite 2025 being hurting Emerging Markets. machines from within Europe.
dictable and choppy. In sharp contrast, OECD(6) 1.7 7.1 5.4 3.8 3.0 noticeably pregnant with many babies;  The EV market is in trouble – the
the highlights from the latest OECD United States(7) 1.3 3.8 2.5 2.1 2.0 one, on a set of things that can coun- steep drop in Lithium prices is Iran is military enemy No 1
Global Economic Outlook – December Euro Area(8) 0.9 5.4 2.4 2.1 2.0 teract what everyone is already expect- evidence. The military industrial complex
2024 (see Table below) give the im- Japan(9) 0.9 3.3 2.6 1.9 2.1 ing to happen, and two, on the big thing  We now know what AI can and will not let him forget that. The Atlantic
pression that all is well with the OECD fi scal balance(10) -3.1 -4.8 -4.8 -4.6 -4.4 that AI will do (and its consequence) cannot do, after the big surprise in Council Report (Scowcroft Middle East
World, at least in terms of expected World real trade growth(1) 3.4 1.0 3.5 3.6 3.5 that is hidden from plain sight. October 2022. Security Initiative) reads like guidance
real growth in GDP, infl ation, unem- Source: OECD Outlook Report, Dec 2024.  There are no other major triggers to the US Admin, but it seems to be
It is strange that over the past six- The noise about 2025 for or against the economic well- published to lull Iran into thinking that
teen Decembers since I started writing  Trump’s threat to: being of the World. direct intervention by USA and Israel
my annual predictions for the coming o Levy penal tariffs on imports is not advisable, hence unlikely. Trump
year, I have seen that when a year starts from Mexico and Canada, Counter points will let Israel pummel Syria’s new ru-
with uncertainties, outcomes are often o Pull USA out of NATO unless All these points sound familiar, but lers and various Iranian proxies so as to
predictable. Does that mean that the Europe pays up, that does not make them real. Actions help the US military industrial complex
OECD is likely to be right? I have also o Punish Iran, China and Russia, have reactions (remember Isaac New- to export more weapons to Israel, and
observed that when the coming year o Penalise India for high tariffs on ton?). In some cases, the statements for it to launch a few direct attacks on
is unlikely to have any surprises (e.g., US imports, may even be untrue to start with. Iran while USA uses other covert means
the OECD paper), I have felt a strange o Take back the Panama Canal to topple the Mullahs who control Iran.
foreboding. Those have been my best unless they reduce transit fees for Trumponomics 2.0 While the US military-industrial com-
years in terms of being able to predict US vessels, Energetic-Complex-Confusing plex may let go of the Ukraine-Russia
the unexpected – like predicting the o End all wars – he wants peace. There is intent, but don’t read too theatre to allow Trump to claim success
Global Financial Crisis in October 2007  The Chinese economy is in dire much into all of Trump’s pronounce- in ending the Ukraine war, it needs war
and COVID in December 2019. When straits and will have to suffer even ments. Trump has been analysed by elsewhere. Forget about world peace
triggers are visible everywhere, there is more due to punches from Trump. psychologists ad infi nitum (low IQ, under Trump. The settlement may be

188 Chemical Weekly January 21, 2025 Chemical Weekly January 21, 2025 189

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