Page 168 - CW E-Magazine (31-12-2024)

Special Report Special Report

“Power demand is expected to grow
Five charts that defi ne the energy transition 130% by up to 1.9% compound annual growth

s the energy landscape rapidly “Between the power markets of the dissonance, and offers a new lens on 125% rate (CAGR) through 2034, highlight-
transforms due to decarboniza- US and China, the curious case of the the energy transition. 120% ing the necessity of accelerating grid
Ation, electrifi cation, and geo- North Sea transition, the towering ambi- modernisation to maintain the US’s
political shifts, Wood Mackenzie has tion of CCS and the electrifying rise Chinese transport: truly electrifying 115% competitive edge amid rising global
released fi ve compelling charts that of EVs, these charts track the wonders China continues to lead the energy 110% competition, particularly from China,”
highlight key trends shaping the sector of the energy transition in 2025 and transition, in a pathway to source 50% of said Forbes-Cable.
in the latest Horizons report. beyond,” said author Malcolm Forbes- its power from low-carbon energy includ- 105%
Cable, Vice President, Upstream and ing hydro, solar, wind, nuclear, and 100% Carbon capture and storage: the
These charts in the report titled Carbon Management Consulting at energy storage by 2028, according to ambitions of youth
‘Conversation Starters: Five Energy Wood Mackenzie. Wood Mackenzie. The report also pro- 95% Juxtaposing the Carbon Capture
Charts to Get You Talking’ provide jects that solar and wind capacity will 90% and Storage (CCS) capacity with LNG
valuable insights into the dynamics of In the Horizons report ‘Top of the exceed coal-fi red power generation 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 production creates an interesting illus-
energy markets, encompassing everything Charts: Five Energy Charts to Make by 2037. US electricity demand growth tration of the scale of the ambition
from the power systems of major econo- You Think’, each chart was evaluated Source: Wood Mackenzie, Energy Information Administration for CCS. This chart is not drawing
mies to the growing adoption of electric based on its ‘Wow Factor,’ conversa- “Never has the world witnessed the equivalence between the two industries
vehicles. tional appeal, industry signpost and pace of growth or transformation of an but compares the growth of two large
energy system that China is currently 12 industrial systems handling gas in a
achieving,” said Forbes-Cable. “By 10 cooled liquid state.
2025, China’s installed solar and wind 8
100% capacity will exceed that of both “Even in the delayed energy transi-
Europe and North America.” 6 tion scenario, CCS capacity is expected
80% 4 to be three times greater than LNG
China’s transport sector is also Billion tonnes supply volumes by 2050, while in the
60% undergoing a signifi cant transforma- 2 base case, it will be four times greater.
tion. By 2034, battery electric vehicles 0 This will require impressive growth
40% (BEVs) will dominate passenger vehicle rates!” said Forbes-Cable.
sales, reaching a 66% market share. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
20% Combining BEVs and hybrids, EVs LNG production CCS base case CCS delayed transition scenario North Sea energy: the tortoise and
will constitute 89% of total sales, CCS country pledges scenario CCS net zero by 2050 scenario the hare
0 according to Wood Mackenzie. The North Sea, once a signifi cant
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: Wood Mackenzie Lens source of oil and gas, was at the van-
“BEVs are projected to grow by 8% guard of the offshore wind sector.
Source: Wood Mackenzie Lens annually through 2030, while sales of This chart plots oil and gas against
internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles offshore wind by quantifying the cumu-
are expected to decline by 11% each 400 lative fi nal energy output. Currently,
year,” said Forbes-Cable. “Wherever 350 the offshore wind capacity stands at
20 30 Total sales you are, Chinese EVs are coming 300 36 gigawatts (GW) and is projected
Powertrain sales (millions) 14 8 6 20 Total sales (millions) Battery EV US power: data’s growing power habit Exajoules (EJ) 150 0 before the cumulative energy output
to exceed 240 GW by 2050. Even so,
18
(2nd axis)
your way.”
250
25
it will be past the end of the century
16
200
12
of offshore winds surpasses that of
100
Internal
Meanwhile in the US, power
10
15
combustion
oil and gas.
50
demand is also set to grow steadily after
10
Plug-in
years of stagnation, largely due to the
Forbes-Cable said, “Having spent
creasing electrifi cation. Key areas driv-
Hybrid EV
Offshore
Oil & Gas
0 4 2 5 0 hydrid EV Fourth Industrial Revolution and in- 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 a number of years on rigs in the North
ing this demand include data centres, wind Sea and experienced the awesome
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 clean technology manufacturing, and Source: Wood Mackenzie Lens nature of the weather I was always
the production of renewable energy Beyond 2050, for the purposes of fi nding the intersection, it has been assumed that offshore wind power curious as to the energy output from
Source: Wood Mackenzie equipment. output will grow by 2% annually. above and below the sea.”
168 Chemical Weekly December 31, 2024 Chemical Weekly December 31, 2024 169
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