Page 170 - CW E-Magazine (5-3-2024)

Special Report Special Report

ENERGY TRANSITION

Nearly 50% of the world’s low-carbon technology 200 World net Zero H production in 2050 reaches 515 Mt 6 World net Zero carbon capture/removals in 2050 reaches 12.7 Bt
2
opportunities will be in Asia-Pacifi c by 2050 150
4
ome to half of the world’s 100
population and contributing
Ha third to the global GDP, 2
the Asia-Pacifi c region is expected to 50
maintain a 50% share of global pri-
mary energy demand and a 60% share 0 0
of global carbon emissions until 2050. 2023 Base Case (2050) Net zero (2050) 2023 Base Case (2050) Net zero (2050)
This trend is unlikely to change with- Electrolytic Blue Other Point source capture (includes BECCS)
out strong policy action and invest- Direct air capture
ment. However, the region still has Nature-based solutions
the potential to turn these challenges Source: Wood Mackenzie Energy Transition Service.
into opportunities and become a global
leader in the energy transition, accord- base case scenario, the Asia Pacifi c EV for low carbon emission will be in the incentives, and supportive regulatory
ing to Wood Mackenzie’s ‘Asia Pacifi c stock is projected to rise from 24-mn Asia Pacifi c. regimes are needed to incentivise the
Energy Transition Outlook (ETO)’ cars today to a staggering 635-mn units transition and close the emissions gap.”
report. by 2050. Furthermore, an additional Hydrogen
30% growth in EV stock is expected in Low-carbon hydrogen will reach Energy juggernaut
“Every country in the Asia Pacifi c the pledges scenario, while the net zero 3.5% of fi nal energy demand by 2050 “The Asia Pacifi c region is account-
region is vastly different in terms of scenario anticipates a remarkable 60% in the base case and 12% in the net ing for a third of global oil demand, a
population growth, economic deve- Source: Wood Mackenzie Energy Transition Service. increase. This exponential growth is zero scenario, pushing out fossil fuels quarter of global gas demand, and 80%
lopment, and policy landscape. What Pathways to low-carbon energy the steps needed to decarbonise with driven by the affordability of EVs and in chemicals, steel, cement and heavy- of global coal demand. But it doesn’t
natural resources they have and – more transition economic reality, renewables and elec- the availability of resources in the duty mobility. produce enough to meet this demand on
importantly – what they don’t have, “The Asia Pacifi c region is the largest tric vehicles (EVs) will be key to this region. its own,” said Nazar.
will determine how they transition to a power generation and renewables region’s transition,” said Jom Madan, Carbon Capture, Utilisation and
low-emissions pathway,” said Prakash market today, but it’s also the most Energy Transition Research at Wood Hub of new technology opportunities Storage (CCUS) According to Wood Mackenzie,
Sharma, Vice President, Scenarios diverse. Each nation has different local Mackenzie. In Wood Mackenzie’s base case, In Wood Mackenzie’s base case, gas demand will continue to increase
and Technologies Research at Wood resources, economic factors, and politi- low-carbon supply accounts for 35% point source and direct air carbon cap- for 15 years in all scenarios, with
Mackenzie. cal situations that drive it. To balance According to Wood Mackenzie’s of power generation today, and it’s pro- ture are expected to increase from 3-mt growth in power and industry offset-
jected to rise to 75% by 2050, while in 2023 to 755-mt by 2050. In the net ting the long-term decline in build-
the share of wind and solar increases zero case, the deployment will reach ings. By 2050, gas demand is expected
to over 54%. China is set to achieve a about 3,360-mt by 2050. However, a to grow from 890-bcm (billion cubic
40 World net zero power supply in 2050 reaches 75 PWh 1,200 World net zero vehicle stock in 2050 reaches 2 billion units cumulative solar and wind capacity of signifi cant expansion will be required meters) to 1,285-bcm in the base case,
2,000-GW by 2030, exceeding their to develop transport, shipping, and stor- but fall to 655-bcm in the net zero
30 target. By 2050, Australia is poised to age infrastructure to accommodate this scenario.
800
lead the Asia-Pacifi c region in renew- increase.
20 able power generation, with a share of “Despite most of the Asia Pacifi c
more than 80% in the base case and the “The successful implementation region being net importers of both oil
400
10 scenarios. of CCUS and low-carbon hydrogen and gas, domestic gas supply is declin-
requires strong policy support. Although ing in the region. It will require either
0 0 This rapid growth in variable several markets have established goals new discoveries or liquefi ed natural gas
2023 Base Case (2050) Net zero (2050) 2023 Base Case (2050) Net zero (2050) renewables is accompanied by adopting of achieving net zero emissions, few (LNG). Even in the net zero scenario,
energy storage, hydrogen, small modular countries are currently on track to meet substantial investment will be needed
Thermal unbated Wind and solar
ICE Electric Other nuclear reactors, and geothermal tech- them,” said Roshna Nazar, Research to maintain the supply from existing
Hydro and nuclear Other
nologies. By 2050, nearly 50% of the Analyst, Energy Transition at Wood fi elds and develop new sources,” Nazar
Source: Wood Mackenzie Energy Transition Service. world’s new technology opportunities Mackenzie. “Robust carbon pricing, tax added.

170 Chemical Weekly March 5, 2024 Chemical Weekly March 5, 2024 171

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