Page 145 - CW E-Magazine (14-1-2025)

Hydrocarbons

FORECAST
India’s import dependency to increase in FY25 as

oil production declines

The decline in natural output of and petrochemical segments in 7M
crude oil from mature fi elds with FY25.
domestic exploration & production (E&P)
companies failing to arrest the fall will India’s natural gas production will
refl ect in higher import dependency in grow by a low single-digit rate in FY25
FY2024-25 according to Fitch Ratings. (7M FY25: 2 percent), supported by
ONGC’s development projects on the
“We expect India’s crude oil pro- western and eastern coasts, including
duction to fall by 2-3 percent in FY25 dency was at 88.1 percent in 7MFY25 from the KG Basin fi eld. However, the
(7M FY25: -3 percent). The fall refl ects (FY24: 87.8 percent, FY14: 77.6 per- growth will slow from the 9 percent
the ongoing struggle of companies cent), and Russia had the largest share CAGR over FY21-FY24, when RIL’s
like ONGC to arrest the natural output of India’s oil supplier mix in H1 FY25 KG basin fi eld reached peak production
decline at mature fi elds through tech- at 39 percent, it added. of around 27-million standard cubic
nology investments to raise recovery metres per day (mscmd).
and tap isolated reservoirs,” the agency Demand for natural gas
projected. However, production should Fitch expects India’s total gas con- “We expect LNG imports to in-
grow by low single-digit percentages sumption to rise by around 10% in crease by around 20 percent in FY25
in FY26, as production increases at FY25 (7M FY25: 11 percent). (7M FY25: 22 per cent). This will be
ONGC’s offshore fi eld in the KG Basin, driven by increasing demand and lower
and at privately owned fi elds, it added. Increasing demand from key international gas prices that will
end-user sectors, policy measures sup- improve affordability for price-sensitive
“We expect India’s crude oil porting the use of gas as it is cleaner sectors,” the ratings agency projected.
import dependency to continue rising in than traditional fuels, and rising natural The faster growth in LNG imports than
the near term, driven by faster growth gas production and LNG imports will domestic production will continue to
in petroleum product demand than in support this growth, it added. Con- increase India’s imported LNG depen-
domestic crude oil production,” Fitch sumption rose by 11-14 percent in the dency (7M FY25: 51 percent, FY24:
said. India’s crude oil import depen- city gas distribution (CGD), refi nery 47 per cent), it added.

ENERGY SECURITY
ISPRL issues tender for new 2.5-mt strategic

petroleum reserve at Padur

Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve India with a combined capacity of about
Ltd. (ISPRL), which has been tasked 5-mt. Part of that capacity is used for
with setting up India’s strategic petro- commercial operations by companies
leum reserves (SPRs), has issued a tender including Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.
seeking private companies to build and (ADNOC). India, the world’s third-
operate a 2.5-mt store for petroleum biggest oil importer and consumer,
reserves at Padur in Karnataka. imports over 80% of its oil needs and
is raising its SPR capacity to protect
Bids are invited to establish build, fi nance, operate and transfer against any global supply disruption.
commercial cum strategic petroleum basis, the notice says.
reserves, including a single point mooring India is also planning to build a
and associated infrastructure on a design, ISPRL operates three SPRs in southern 4-mt SPR at Chandikhol in Odisha.

Chemical Weekly January 14, 2025 145

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