Page 170 - CW E-Magazine (26-9-2023)

News from Abroad

OUTLOOK

World heading for 2.5°C warming without immediate

action: Wood Mackenzie

The world is currently on a 2.5°C * Electricity to become the major annual global emissions. But no major
warming trajectory according to Wood energy market, with renewables the country is on track to meet their 2030
Mackenzie’s ‘Energy Transition Out- main source of power supply. Power emissions reduction goals, let alone
look’ report, a milestone assessment demand doubles every 10 years to net zero. Policy landscape is shifting
of the global journey towards a lower support road transport electrifica- to direct incentives and targeted sup-
carbon future. If transformative action tion and green hydrogen produc- port to accelerate the development of
is not taken now, the Paris Agreement tion. Energy will have to be used new technologies, but countries need
goal to limit the average temperature much more efficiently in a net zero to urgently address obstacles including
increase to below 1.5-°C will likely be scenario with demand-side manage- permitting restrictions and constraints
missed, the report warns. ment a major component, softening in the electricity supply chain,” Mr.
the impact or rising electrification Flowers added.
The new report analyses three diffe- in other sectors.
rent pathways for the energy and natural * Carbon Capture, Utilisation and What’s needed to limit global warming
resources sector – Wood Mackenzie’s Storage (CCUS) and DAC (Direct to 1.5°C?
base case (2.5°C), country pledges sce- Air Capture) tackle hard to abate In order to meet the 1.5°C target,
nario (2°C) and net zero 2050 scenario industries and help restore the carbon urgent action is required now to build low
(1.5°C). cycle longer term. carbon power supply and infrastructure
* Rapid development of copper, nickel at a fast pace, according to Mr. Prakash
The report’s key findings include: and lithium supplies is essential to Sharma, Vice President, Scenarios and
* Achieving 1.5°C is still possible but support renewables, electric vehicles Technologies Research at Wood Mac-
with limited temperature overshoot, (EVs) and transmission infrastructure. kenzie, and lead author of the report.
and much depends on actions taken Lithium demand is projected to Power transmission infrastructure will
this decade. double by 2030 (base case). also need to expand alongside renew-
* Low carbon power supply and ables and the next phase of growth
infrastructure needs to scale up “The supply of low carbon energy will require grid connectivity.
at twice the pace built in the last has grown by a third since 2015, but
decade – made more difficult by the the world’s energy demand has grown Carbon pricing is required to close
current delays faced by renewables much faster with rising incomes and the gap in cost of low carbon supply,
assets due to limited grid intercon- populations. The good news is that sus- in order to drive adoption in difficult
nections. tainability is alive and kicking, spurred sectors such as steel, cement and chemi-
* A minimum of $1.4 trillion a year on by policies. Achieving 1.5°C is cals. Wood Mackenzie expects that a
(base case) must be invested in renew- going to be extremely challenging, carbon price of $150-200 per tonne is
ables, infrastructure and energy but it is possible and greatly depends required by 2050 from the current global
transition technologies. Annual on actions taken this decade,” said average of $25 per tonne.
spend into these sectors has to rise Mr. Simon Flowers, Chairman and
to $2.4 trillion to achieve net zero. Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Electricity will become the largest
* Oil & gas still have a role to play energy market, overtaking oil and
as part of a managed transition. In Wood Mackenzie’s base case, gas as a fast-response, low cost, and
There will be a natural depletion energy related emissions will peak in efficient energy source,” Mr. Sharma
as low carbon supply develops, but 2027 and fall roughly 25% by 2050 added.
oil & gas supply will still have to from 2019 levels. With low carbon
be replenished as the world moves energy’s share of final consumption grow- In Wood Mackenzie’s base case,
towards net zero. Spend will be ing to 14% by 2030 and 28% by 2050. electricity’s share in final energy
$0.5 trillion a year in the base case, demand rises from 20% to 22% by 2030,
and $0.2 trillion a year for net zero. “Net zero pledges now cover 88% of and to 30% in 2050. In the country

170 Chemical Weekly September 26, 2023

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