Page 132 - CW E-Magazine (6-5-2025)

Point of View

imported solar cells, but a loophole allows them to enter tariff-free from countries with whom India has free trade agreements (e.g., Vietnam
and Malaysia).

In the US, stiff anti-dumping and countervailing duties were imposed on imports even before the ongoing tariff wars. Chinese companies who diversified
their manufacturing bases to Southeast Asia to circumvent the first lot of tariffs, may no longer benefit given the broad spread of country-specific tariffs that
the US has just imposed. How these tariffs will evolve in time is, however, anybody’s guess at this point.

S&P reckons that the incentives and the tariffs on imports from China have largely bridged the gap in module manufacturing costs between
India and China. India’s measures (and of other countries), it reckons could lower China’s market share of PV module capacity from 78% now
to 68% by 2029.
In the upstream supply chain like polysilicon, ingots, and wafers, India has lower investment costs than Europe and the US (though not China)
and could emerge as an alternative supplier to China. These inputs are more capital-, energy-, and technology-intensive than solar cells and modules,
resulting in greater capital expenditures, operating costs, and technical complexities. Several, Indian companies – Indosol Solar, Reliance New Energy
Solar, Adani Infrastructure, and FS India Solar Ventures – intend to build integrated facilities, which encompass production from polysilicon to modules,
and are counting on an enabling policy framework to stay competitive.
Technology shifts
While crystalline silicon remains the fundamental technology for PV cells (and likely to stay that way for some time), technology developments
have led to a steady improvement in efficiencies (the fraction of incident solar energy converted to useful electricity). At the turn of this century,
efficiencies of the best-in-class ‘p-type’ cells were in the range of 15-19%, which nudged up to 18-23% in the Passivated Emitter and Rear Contact
(PERC) solar cells, which have an additional reflective layer on the back. The current lot of ‘n-type’ cells deliver efficiencies of 22-25%, while hybrid
thin-film systems under development can go up to 25-30%. Perovskites, touted as an alternative to silicon, are said to offer efficiency levels upward
of 25%, though their longevity remains a problem. Their other benefits include simpler processing and manufacturing, and lower weight (by an order
of magnitude).

While much of the installed PV base globally just four years ago were first generation ‘p-type’ monofacials, the ‘n-types’ have gathered market
share and now account for 90% as they are the choice for new installations. Thin-film technologies still represent a small niche, and likely to stay
that way at least till the end of the decade.

A lot of the innovation in the industry is at the module level – rather than the cell – and bifacial systems, which generate electricity from both
front and back panels, are now the preferred system despite their more difficult installation and higher costs. Their share of the installed base is
expected to reach 60% by 2029.
Material choices changing
Solar panels need a range of materials aside of the core PV cell. These include the front sheet of glass to receive sunlight; encapsulants that
bond the cell and sheets and typically made of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) copolymer or polyolefin elastomer (POE); and back-sheet, made of one
or more polymers.
The back-sheet is a complex sandwich structure comprising a polyester (PET) thick film, that acts as a core and provides electrical insulation;
and a polyvinyl fluoride (PVF) or polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) layer that acts as the outer and inner layer, protecting against moisture ingress and
environmental conditions.

The migration to ‘n-type’ bifacial systems will change the types of polymers used. While EVA dominates the encapsulant market for monofacial
‘p-type’ PV cells, POE is showing faster growth in line with ‘n-type’ and bifacial markets. S&P estimates that the share of POE amongst encapsulants
will double by 2030 from current levels, at the expense of EVA.

Recycling – for sustainability and supply security
Recycling of solar PV panels offers environmental, social and economic benefits while enhancing security of supply in the long term. The IEA
estimates that if panels were systematically collected at the end of their lifetime, supplies from recycling them could meet over 20% of the solar PV
industry’s demand for aluminium, copper, glass, silicon and almost 70% for silver between 2040 and 2050. However, existing PV recycling processes
struggle to generate enough revenue from the recovered materials to cover the cost of the recycling process.
India’s private sector is driving a concerted bid to emerge as an integrated base for PV. With the right approach and an enabling policy environment
companies can aim not just to address the domestic market, but also international ones.
Ravi Raghavan

132 Chemical Weekly May 6, 2025

Contents Index to Advertisers Index to Products Advertised